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一、本周觀點

前三季度保險業盈利增長135%，點燃保險股催化劑，保監會發佈《前三季度保險市場運行情況和主要特點》，今年前三季度利潤總額爲917.5億元，同比增長134.9%；國壽、平安公佈三季報，盈利分別增長219%、45%;三季度盈利高增長有望點燃保險股催化劑。

基數低固然是高增長的重要原因，但投資中樞向上趨勢不可忽視。去年同期大幅計提減值造成盈利基數，固然是今年盈利高增長的重要原因；但是投資收益中樞向上趨勢也不可忽視，前三季度投資收益率3.82%（年後5.09%），較去年同期增長1.5%；投資中樞向上將逐步推動保險景氣度溫和復甦（參見《保險周期律：》系列深度報告）。

保險股持續低迷的邏輯有望在四季度打破，此時是增持保險股的好時機。今年保險股持續下跌主要因爲：一是開門紅低預期和定價放開政策利空造成市場對保險業務的持續擔憂，二是市場風險偏好上升，市場對成長股偏好，保險股等大盤股受冷落。三季報後這一邏輯將打破，保險股也有望止跌回升，理由：①三季報表明保險基本面持續改善的態勢，投資向上、盈利增長、保費復甦，市場擔憂將消除；②資金博弈角度來看，創業板近期連續下跌表明市場風險偏好正在分化，保險股進可攻退可守，若資金再次博弈，將是配臵重點。行業增持，維持對中國太保、中國人壽、新華保險的增持評級。

二、重要資料與行業資訊

行業：前三季度保險業利潤同比增134.9%，資金運用收益率上升；保險債權股權計劃井噴，直接輸血基建5139億元；壽險費率改革已過兩月，産品報備已達82個。

公司：中國人壽和平安公佈三季報，盈利分別同比增長219%、45%。

估值：2013年P/EV：國壽0.99、太保0.99、新華1.07。

三、下周重要事項關注

十八屆三中全會政策預期；

太保和新華保險公佈三季報；

新産品推進進展和銷售情況。

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 1 - 'Responsibility To Protect' In Egypt, Libya And Syria
• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

引言回覆 bommob 的話：

這支不止大覺很重要
連Q的實機和距離都要練

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 1 - 'Responsibility To Protect' In Egypt, Libya And Syria
• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

作者mgmghsu (鎂鎂)

看板BeautySalon

標題[請益] 想請問la mier的產品

時間Sun Oct 27 17:18:44 2013

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

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作者truffaut (Bon Vivant)

看板TaiwanDrama

標題[LIVE] 我愛你愛你愛我 第12集 (FTV日十檔)

時間Sun Oct 27 20:39:13 2013

推 win1786:第一推!!等著開呢!期待 10/27 20:53

推 yoruyahai:推! 10/27 21:09

推 lu991:推丹丹>///< 10/27 21:16

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 1 - 'Responsibility To Protect' In Egypt, Libya And Syria
• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

知識+ 之問答內容是由參與Yahoo!奇摩知識+ 之網友提供，僅供參考，Yahoo!奇摩不保證其正確性。

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 1 - 'Responsibility To Protect' In Egypt, Libya And Syria
• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

作者hom1130 (.撥雲見日.)

看板give

標題[贈送] 全國 軍用皮鞋兩雙

時間Fri Oct 25 22:15:12 2013

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 1 - 'Responsibility To Protect' In Egypt, Libya And Syria
• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

財政部針對103年度歲入預算，共編列1兆3645億元，較102年度預算數1兆3608億元，增加37億元。立委許添財在立法院財委會質詢指出，今年編的歲入，可否用一句話來形容一下？是不是很慘不忍睹？財政部長張盛和回答說，「歲入成長趨緩」，但還沒到慘不忍睹這個地步，會維持舉債上限不要超過國內生產毛額(GDP)38%。

張盛和上午赴立法院財委會進行「財政部主管103年度施政重點及預算編列報告」，並備質詢。他在報告時指出，102年度截至9月底止，財政部主管歲入累計實收數1兆5.99億元，分別占法定預算數1兆3607.65億元及分配預算數1兆809.15億元之73.53%及92.57%。張盛和表示，今年已釋股總計441億元，而課稅收入則少了90億元。

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 1 - 'Responsibility To Protect' In Egypt, Libya And Syria
• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK

作者safe0515 (safe0515)

看板Tainan

標題[活動] 11/10 e定要抬頭 -「親子HAPPY 動ㄘ動」

時間Mon Oct 28 16:07:29 2013

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• Massacres That Matter - Part 2 - The Media Response On Egypt, Libya And Syria
• National demonstration: No attack on Syria - Saturday 31 August, 12 noon, Temple Place, London, UK